A map of Code Green or good air quality forcasts of particle pollution in Richmond, Roanoke, Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia for October 26, 2006, from the U.S. Environmental Protection Ageny's airnow.gov website. DEQ submits forecasting information to EPA on a daily basis.
Program of the Month:
Air Data Analysis
What’s in the air? How much of it is there? What will air quality be like in the future? These are just a few of the questions that forecasters and scientists in DEQ’s Office of Air Data Analysis consider.
One question that the office answers everyday is, what will air quality be like tomorrow? DEQ issues daily forecasts for the metropolitan areas of Richmond, Hampton Roads and Roanoke all year, and daily forecasts for Winchester from May to September.
These forecasts are sent to media around the state and reported on TV and in newspapers. Local environmental groups also use the forecasts to encourage businesses and industry to take effective steps to reduce emissions when pollution is expected to be at elevated levels.
With the exception of the air quality forecasts, most of the office’s work is behind the scenes.
“The majority of the focus is to conduct a technical analysis to demonstrate if a plan will meet its goals,” said Tom Ballou, the Office of Air Data Analysis director.
DEQ is required to develop plans to control air pollution around the state. To support the plans, the office conducts comprehensive estimates, called emissions inventories, of pollutant amounts emitted on a daily basis from factories, businesses, vehicles and other sources. Information for the inventories comes from estimates of pollutants, including ozone precursors (such as nitrogen oxides) and particle pollution, which are reported by facilities that have permits limiting air pollution from DEQ.
From this information, the air division’s planning group determines what type of pollution controls should be implemented to curb pollutants, and the Office of Air Data Analysis uses computer modeling to test the plan’s strategy for reducing emissions.
The office also is involved in other projects that include regional modeling as it relates to particle pollution, ozone and haze, and special projects such as studying the air deposition of mercury and nitrogen in Virginia.
In addition to helping plan for the future, the office tests the success of air pollution control plans and regulations. Ballou said that there have been significant improvements in air quality related to a nitrogen oxide trading program within Virginia and among other states.
“There has been an 11,000 ton reduction in nitrogen oxide based on this program from 2003 to 2005 during the summer ozone season,” Ballou said. “The amount of ozone that is being transported also has been reduced significantly.”
The office is also predicting clearer skies in the future for two federal protected patches of land – the James River Face Wilderness in Bedford County and Shenandoah National Park. These areas are included in a national program to reduce haze and improve visibility to natural conditions in national parks and forests.
“In these areas, we are ahead of the target for improved visibility,” Ballou said.